Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: B6 1381 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:20	IAH 11:07	22%	7%	1.0%	66%
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:29	IAH 17:19	33%	11%	0.9%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	6h 14m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673	6h 59m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:52DL 1223	8h 12m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:08DL 2327	7h 58m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	3h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514	11h 36m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	3h 03m Detroit	DTW 12:26 → IAH 14:19DL 1307	8h 04m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	6h 43m	93%	79%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 12:42 → IAH 14:20AA 398	7h 21m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON