Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 477 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day B6 477 JFK 07:03 → JAX 09:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 677 JFK 15:41 → JAX 18:04 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 477 JetBlue	JFK 07:03	JAX 09:27	12%	4%	1.5%	no record
DL 1035 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:55	JAX 16:44	17%	5%	1.9%	73%
B6 677 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:41	JAX 18:04	29%	10%	1.6%	78%
DL 5483 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 08:45	JAX 11:28	18%	7%	3.4%	82%
DL 5123 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 19:15	JAX 22:17	26%	11%	4.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON