Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 411 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day B6 411 JFK 06:40 → LAS 09:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1211 JFK 16:45 → LAS 19:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 411 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:40	LAS 09:11	8%	2%	1.1%	94%
DL 607 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAS 09:27	8%	2%	0.9%	85%
AA 1473 American	JFK 08:19	LAS 10:57	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
DL 807 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:30	LAS 14:01	14%	4%	0.9%	82%
B6 511 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAS 13:43	17%	5%	1.0%	84%
DL 806 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAS 19:50	18%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 2536 American	JFK 13:30	LAS 15:54	19%	6%	1.3%	no record
B6 211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:09	LAS 14:39	19%	6%	1.1%	86%
DL 568 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	LAS 22:20	20%	6%	0.9%	71%
AA 2440 American	JFK 18:01	LAS 20:28	24%	7%	0.9%	no record
B6 1211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:45	LAS 19:30	28%	8%	1.0%	83%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 00m	97%	85%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	49m Charlotte	CLT 08:46 → LAS 10:32AA 2981	7h 33m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	7h 35m	90%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON