Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 171 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 171 JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1223 JFK 20:54 → LAX 23:33 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 171 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 09:01	7%	2%	1.2%	89%
AA 33 American Flight history →	JFK 07:05	LAX 10:07	9%	3%	1.2%	90%
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 08:49	11%	2%	1.1%	88%
DL 742 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAX 09:55	11%	2%	0.8%	78%
AA 1 American Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:58	12%	4%	1.2%	87%
AA 3 American Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAX 13:58	12%	4%	1.0%	85%
DL 773 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:54	13%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 701 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:48	LAX 16:30	13%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 1905 Delta	JFK 11:05	LAX 13:49	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 713 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:00	LAX 10:58	14%	3%	0.8%	78%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:08	LAX 09:47	15%	3%	1.2%	83%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:37	LAX 12:16	15%	4%	1.1%	83%
AA 255 American Flight history →	JFK 14:40	LAX 17:48	15%	5%	1.0%	81%
AA 341 American Flight history →	JFK 15:40	LAX 18:48	17%	7%	1.0%	77%
DL 771 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:54	LAX 17:36	17%	5%	0.7%	78%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:02	LAX 13:41	17%	5%	0.9%	72%
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:30	LAX 11:25	17%	4%	1.2%	81%
AA 306 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAX 20:19	18%	6%	1.1%	83%
DL 747 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:42	LAX 19:22	19%	6%	0.7%	81%
DL 738 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:48	LAX 20:30	20%	7%	0.7%	77%
DL 707 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:55	LAX 18:37	20%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 302 American Flight history →	JFK 18:10	LAX 21:28	21%	7%	1.0%	76%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:15	LAX 18:16	22%	9%	1.0%	71%
B6 623 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:36	LAX 19:14	23%	8%	1.0%	74%
DL 752 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:20	LAX 23:38	23%	7%	0.8%	73%
DL 1915 Delta	JFK 18:58	LAX 21:38	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:09	LAX 20:48	31%	10%	1.0%	73%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:54	LAX 23:33	35%	12%	1.1%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 08:30 → DEN 10:58DL 532	1h 31m Denver	DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148	8h 26m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	8h 17m	92%	82%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 08:57 → LAX 10:56AA 1995	7h 57m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON