Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2049 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2049 JFK 07:05 → MCO 09:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 483 JFK 14:57 → MCO 17:33 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	7%	2%	1.0%	84%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:27	MCO 14:17	13%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	13%	3%	0.9%	78%
B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:39	MCO 10:19	15%	5%	1.3%	75%
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:15	MCO 15:10	18%	8%	1.5%	69%
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:59	MCO 23:19	19%	7%	1.0%	67%
B6 183 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:06	MCO 12:43	19%	6%	1.2%	81%
DL 1543 Delta	JFK 15:17	MCO 17:50	22%	9%	3.6%	no record
B6 283 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:02	MCO 23:39	29%	12%	1.3%	62%
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:57	MCO 17:33	30%	12%	3.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON