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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 56m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 8h 35m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor 3h 02m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 6h 31m 98% 77%
FrontierDetails → JFK 13:00 → ATL 15:50F9 4731 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 17:06 → MDW 18:24F9 2779 6h 24m 85% 61%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 2h 48m Minneapolis MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor 7h 42m 98% 58%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 2h 05m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 6h 54m 97% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON