Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 655 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 655 JFK 05:55 → MIA 09:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2603 JFK 17:46 → MIA 20:45 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 655 American Flight history →	JFK 05:55	MIA 09:12	6%	2%	1.3%	95%
DL 1528 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MIA 10:24	11%	3%	1.1%	86%
AA 2017 American Flight history →	JFK 07:30	MIA 10:45	15%	3%	1.3%	85%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:08	MIA 14:22	20%	5%	0.9%	78%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:10	MIA 18:53	23%	10%	0.9%	72%
AA 688 American Flight history →	JFK 10:55	MIA 13:54	23%	6%	1.3%	76%
DL 1428 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:55	MIA 23:37	24%	11%	1.6%	70%
AA 1174 American Flight history →	JFK 18:50	MIA 22:22	28%	11%	1.5%	74%
AA 2228 American	JFK 16:02	MIA 18:57	33%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 642 American	JFK 14:29	MIA 17:29	34%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 2603 American Flight history →	JFK 17:46	MIA 20:45	36%	11%	1.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON