Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2390 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2390 JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2245 JFK 18:04 → MSP 20:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2390 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:15	MSP 09:25	5%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 2414 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:35	MSP 13:50	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2245 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:04	MSP 20:00	22%	7%	0.6%	70%
DL 4933 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 18:20	MSP 21:00	30%	15%	9.4%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON