tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 355 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:40 ONT 22:44 29% 10% 0.8% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:12DL 1173 9h 12m 100% 92%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 09:59 → PDX 12:49AS 19 1h 41m Portland PDX 14:30 → ONT 16:52AS 2093 · flown by Horizon 9h 53m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 52m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 93% 83%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 1h 38m Phoenix PHX 10:56 → ONT 12:29AA 2661 8h 27m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 10h 30m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → JFK 12:29 → PHX 14:43AA 2829 2h 13m Phoenix PHX 16:56 → ONT 18:26AA 1666 8h 57m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635 8h 27m 90% 75%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23 1h 32m Seattle SEA 17:51 → ONT 20:32AS 592 10h 32m 92% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON