Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3221 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 3221 JFK 06:56 → ORD 08:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 405 JFK 20:14 → ORD 21:48 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3221 American	JFK 06:56	ORD 08:29	10%	3%	2.6%	no record
B6 905 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:05	ORD 08:50	14%	4%	2.7%	90%
AA 788 American	JFK 10:31	ORD 12:03	18%	5%	2.5%	no record
YX 5599 Republic	JFK 19:42	ORD 21:19	25%	9%	2.1%	no record
AA 2909 American	JFK 15:03	ORD 16:39	26%	9%	2.9%	no record
AA 4489 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 19:03	ORD 20:40	27%	9%	2.1%	82%
B6 405 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:14	ORD 21:48	37%	12%	2.1%	65%
DL 5119 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 10:30	ORD 12:20	14%	3%	7.0%	86%
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:30	ORD 09:25	26%	14%	12.5%	74%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:00	ORD 17:11	26%	14%	23.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON