Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2369 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 2369 JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 819 JFK 18:59 → PHX 21:13 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2369 American Flight history →	JFK 07:02	PHX 09:18	9%	3%	1.1%	88%
DL 791 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:10	PHX 10:30	12%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 2829 American Flight history →	JFK 12:29	PHX 14:43	12%	4%	0.9%	82%
AA 1186 American Flight history →	JFK 08:58	PHX 11:14	14%	4%	1.0%	76%
DL 798 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:29	PHX 20:08	18%	6%	0.7%	73%
B6 135 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:08	PHX 12:22	20%	5%	1.1%	69%
AA 2606 American	JFK 17:31	PHX 19:54	21%	8%	0.9%	no record
DL 784 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:55	PHX 23:37	21%	6%	0.7%	65%
AA 819 American	JFK 18:59	PHX 21:13	23%	8%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 34m	91%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → PHX 16:04DL 1738	7h 50m	86%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON