Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5685 JFK 15:10 → PIT 17:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest YX 5754 JFK 19:47 → PIT 21:27 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5685 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:10	PIT 17:15	14%	4%	1.2%	78%
AA 4734 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 16:29	PIT 18:09	15%	4%	1.4%	86%
AA 4611 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 20:30	PIT 22:27	16%	5%	1.6%	75%
YX 5754 Republic	JFK 19:47	PIT 21:27	18%	5%	1.3%	no record
DL 5086 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 09:50	PIT 11:45	20%	8%	5.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON