Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Providence on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147	6h 29m	98%	88%
American Details →	JFK 06:29 → DCA 07:57AA 4671 · flown by Republic	2h 04m Washington	DCA 10:01 → PVD 11:33AA 5619 · flown by PSA	5h 04m	99%	85%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	3h 33m Charlotte	CLT 13:40 → PVD 15:58AA 2679	7h 59m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	7h 49m	97%	84%
American Details →	JFK 11:59 → CLT 14:05AA 493	2h 15m Charlotte	CLT 16:20 → PVD 18:30AA 2338	6h 31m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659	6h 59m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 10:25 → PVD 12:25DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	5h 10m	87%	75%
JetBlue Details →	JFK 07:39 → MCO 10:19B6 883	3h 43m Orlando	MCO 14:02 → PVD 17:08B6 1075	9h 29m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	JFK 16:36 → FLL 19:35B6 1201	57m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:32 → PVD 23:44B6 1196	7h 08m	60%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON