Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2320 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2320 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:10	RSW 11:28	12%	3%	1.7%	89%
B6 2129 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:06	RSW 15:09	28%	9%	2.2%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	6h 11m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	8h 04m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	3h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 12:52 → RSW 17:19DL 2219	10h 04m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 19:28 → RSW 21:13DL 1736	8h 03m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124	7h 55m	98%	80%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	1h 59m Charlotte	CLT 12:06 → RSW 14:14AA 2018	6h 15m	95%	78%
JetBlue Details →	JFK 06:30 → BUF 07:52B6 1602	3h 15m Buffalo	BUF 11:07 → RSW 14:05B6 2049	7h 35m	99%	75%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:58 → RSW 17:56AA 2736	9h 41m	97%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON