Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 683 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 683 JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 1189 JFK 15:59 → SAN 19:01 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 683 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:55	SAN 11:55	15%	3%	1.0%	82%
B6 189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SAN 10:50	17%	5%	1.4%	90%
AS 35 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SAN 14:27	19%	5%	0.8%	77%
DL 709 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:30	SAN 20:34	23%	7%	0.9%	75%
DL 685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:29	SAN 23:43	24%	6%	1.0%	75%
AS 25 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 16:57	SAN 20:08	26%	7%	0.9%	78%
B6 1189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:59	SAN 19:01	27%	8%	1.3%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843	8h 39m	98%	82%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 31m Phoenix	PHX 10:49 → SAN 12:25AA 2122	8h 23m	94%	74%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466	8h 06m	91%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON