Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:40, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Antonio on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1166 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	SAT 11:42	12%	3%	0.9%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	8h 38m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	7h 30m	97%	83%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	3h 04m Phoenix	PHX 12:22 → SAT 16:44AA 570	10h 42m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:22 → SAT 18:50DL 2893	8h 50m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123	8h 36m	89%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic	1h 34m Boston	BOS 09:00 → SAT 12:24DL 816	7h 24m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 20:52 → SAT 22:19DL 1222	7h 38m	96%	79%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:52 → SAT 15:15AA 791	8h 00m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON