Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 76 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 76 JFK 06:00 → SFO 09:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 39 JFK 19:02 → SFO 21:54 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 76 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:21	7%	2%	1.2%	90%
B6 115 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:15	10%	2%	1.0%	83%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SFO 10:15	11%	4%	0.7%	74%
AA 179 American Flight history →	JFK 07:58	SFO 11:19	12%	5%	1.3%	82%
AS 227 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 09:30	SFO 12:52	14%	5%	1.1%	82%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:30	SFO 14:08	15%	6%	0.9%	78%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	16%	5%	0.8%	74%
B6 15 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SFO 11:20	16%	5%	1.1%	87%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 10:29	SFO 13:54	16%	6%	1.3%	60%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	17%	6%	0.9%	64%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:15	SFO 14:33	17%	5%	0.7%	73%
DL 679 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:55	SFO 18:24	19%	8%	0.7%	75%
AA 15 American Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:05	20%	9%	1.1%	75%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	20%	8%	1.1%	65%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:06	22%	9%	0.7%	67%
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:45	SFO 19:11	22%	9%	1.0%	67%
AS 27 Alaska	JFK 16:53	SFO 19:37	25%	9%	0.9%	no record
B6 615 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:30	SFO 22:10	26%	10%	1.0%	68%
DL 667 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:00	SFO 22:40	27%	10%	0.7%	62%
AS 39 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 19:02	SFO 21:54	28%	10%	0.9%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	96%	77%
American Details →	JFK 07:05 → LAX 10:07AA 33	55m Los Angeles	LAX 11:02 → SFO 12:34AA 1110	8h 29m	91%	64%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:00 → LAX 10:58DL 713	1h 04m Los Angeles	LAX 12:02 → SFO 13:25DL 689	8h 25m	89%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON