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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 9h 35m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 10h 12m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:55DL 742 3h 02m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 10h 12m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 10h 52m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 08m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 1h 02m Phoenix PHX 10:20 → SJC 12:22AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 8h 20m 91% 80%
AmericanDetails → JFK 12:29 → PHX 14:43AA 2829 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 16:28 → SJC 18:36AA 2094 9h 07m 96% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON