Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1877 at 08:08 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 1877 JFK 08:08 → SJU 11:58 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 803 JFK 15:43 → SJU 19:34 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1877 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:08	SJU 11:58	13%	3%	0.9%	87%
DL 1859 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	SJU 23:53	21%	7%	0.9%	70%
B6 503 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:00	SJU 14:14	23%	7%	1.1%	72%
B6 1603 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:19	SJU 16:11	24%	8%	1.0%	77%
B6 803 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:43	SJU 19:34	34%	14%	1.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON