Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 892 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 892 JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 71 JFK 18:17 → SLC 21:49 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 892 Delta Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SLC 09:03	6%	1%	0.7%	88%
DL 917 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:14	SLC 14:21	14%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 887 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:27	SLC 19:55	17%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 863 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:29	SLC 22:08	22%	7%	0.7%	75%
B6 71 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:17	SLC 21:49	31%	11%	1.1%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON