Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 161 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:20	SMF 21:49	30%	14%	0.9%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	9h 16m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585	10h 02m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 54m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest	10h 27m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	10h 12m	96%	83%
Alaska Details →	JFK 09:59 → PDX 12:49AS 19	1h 42m Portland	PDX 14:31 → SMF 16:06AS 1307	9h 07m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	47m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904	8h 00m	91%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743	9h 43m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON