Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 403 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:35	SNA 10:28	12%	3%	0.9%	84%
AA 2459 American Flight history →	JFK 08:23	SNA 11:15	14%	4%	1.1%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 08:58 → PHX 11:14AA 1186	3h 08m Phoenix	PHX 14:22 → SNA 15:54AA 2463	9h 56m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	JFK 09:59 → PDX 12:49AS 19	1h 59m Portland	PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19AS 264	10h 20m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	9h 31m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826	9h 44m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012	11h 00m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081	8h 39m	96%	80%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 14:02 → SNA 16:54AS 773	12h 54m	99%	80%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 56m Phoenix	PHX 11:14 → SNA 12:53AA 1656	8h 51m	96%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	50m Seattle	SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357	9h 55m	74%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON