Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2042 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 2042 JFK 07:05 → TPA 10:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 2725 JFK 20:00 → TPA 23:15 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2042 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	TPA 10:01	7%	2%	0.8%	88%
DL 2093 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:30	TPA 17:39	16%	6%	0.8%	79%
DL 1636 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:55	TPA 23:20	18%	7%	0.8%	76%
B6 225 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:41	TPA 13:31	22%	7%	1.2%	80%
B6 2725 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	TPA 23:15	27%	9%	1.2%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON