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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:44 → VPS 11:00DL 2048 6h 00m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 6h 20m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:00DL 2170 6h 00m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 18:01 → VPS 18:17DL 2803 6h 07m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 6h 08m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → JFK 11:59 → CLT 14:05AA 493 2h 41m Charlotte CLT 16:46 → VPS 17:25AA 5201 · flown by PSA 6h 26m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:20 → VPS 15:29AA 2501 8h 14m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:06 → VPS 21:11AA 1201 7h 29m 90% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON