Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 333 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–21%.

Safest bet that day AS 333 JNU 05:02 → SEA 08:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 332 JNU 06:59 → SEA 10:17 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 333 Alaska	JNU 05:02	SEA 08:20	10%	3%	1.8%	no record
DL 1605 Delta Flight history →	JNU 07:20	SEA 10:56	11%	4%	1.1%	98%
AS 456 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 13:54	SEA 17:20	16%	5%	1.9%	72%
AS 332 Alaska	JNU 06:59	SEA 10:17	21%	5%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON