Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2222 at 06:02, 4%.

Safest bet that day WN 2222 KOA 06:02 → HNL 07:07 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1077 KOA 12:20 → HNL 13:18 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2222 Southwest	KOA 06:02	HNL 07:07	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2223 Southwest	KOA 08:02	HNL 09:07	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
AS 1017 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 06:00	HNL 06:47	11%	3%	1.3%	94%
AS 1027 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:31	HNL 09:19	23%	6%	2.3%	87%worse than usual
WN 2224 Southwest	KOA 11:41	HNL 12:46	24%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 1037 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 09:44	HNL 10:32	39%	9%	2.7%	82%worse than usual
AS 1107 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 14:39	HNL 15:37	41%	12%	1.9%	76%worse than usual
AS 1057 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 10:51	HNL 11:40	46%	10%	1.9%	76%worse than usual
AS 1087 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 13:26	HNL 14:24	46%	11%	1.9%	72%worse than usual
AS 1197 Alaska	KOA 14:16	HNL 15:14	46%	12%	1.9%	no record
AS 1067 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:34	HNL 12:32	47%	10%	1.9%	67%worse than usual
AS 1077 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 12:20	HNL 13:18	50%	12%	2.1%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON