Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38% (calm day: 21%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, 59% on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	1h 08m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 39m	94%	59%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:44 → HNL 10:32AS 1037	2h 53m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	9h 26m	100%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:34 → HNL 12:32AS 1067	53m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	7h 36m	33%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON