Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39% (calm day: 25%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:44, 59% on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2372 United Flight history →	KOA 12:57	LAX 21:26	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
AS 561 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 14:29	LAX 22:40	20%	4%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 08:00 → LIH 08:55AS 1029	3h 39m Lihue	LIH 12:34 → LAX 21:00AS 964	10h 00m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:31 → HNL 09:19AS 1027	2h 25m Honolulu	HNL 11:44 → LAX 20:06AS 826	8h 35m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:44 → HNL 10:32AS 1037	2h 38m Honolulu	HNL 13:10 → LAX 21:32AS 802	8h 48m	100%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON