tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 1029 at 08:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1029 Alaska Flight history → KOA 08:00 LIH 08:55 8% 2% 0.8% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017 1h 46m Honolulu HNL 08:33 → LIH 09:14AS 1033 3h 14m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039 2h 21m Kahului OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049 3h 47m 100% 69%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 08:31 → HNL 09:19AS 1027 1h 23m Honolulu HNL 10:42 → LIH 11:32AS 1063 3h 01m 95% 55%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 09:44 → HNL 10:32AS 1037 3h 15m Honolulu HNL 13:47 → LIH 14:31AS 1083 4h 47m 100% 34%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 10:51 → HNL 11:40AS 1057 2h 14m Honolulu HNL 13:54 → LIH 14:44AS 1093 3h 53m 95% 33%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149 56m Kahului OGG 14:24 → LIH 15:13AS 1159 2h 22m 56% 35%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 09:44 → HNL 10:32AS 1037 58m Honolulu HNL 11:30 → LIH 12:20AS 1073 2h 36m 53% 25%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 11:34 → HNL 12:32AS 1067 1h 15m Honolulu HNL 13:47 → LIH 14:31AS 1083 2h 57m 73% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON