Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2229 at 13:34 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2229 KOA 13:34 → OGG 14:28 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1259 KOA 13:52 → OGG 14:29 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2229 Southwest	KOA 13:34	OGG 14:28	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 1039 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 09:19	OGG 09:55	18%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 1149 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 12:51	OGG 13:28	36%	6%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
AS 1259 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 13:52	OGG 14:29	37%	7%	0.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON