Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:19, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 833 Alaska	KOA 12:24	PDX 20:53	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 08:00 → LIH 08:55AS 1029	2h 29m Lihue	LIH 11:24 → PDX 19:58AS 974	8h 58m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	1h 27m Kahului	OGG 11:22 → PDX 19:32AS 480	7h 13m	95%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	58m Honolulu	HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:12AS 839	7h 12m	87%	61%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:31 → HNL 09:19AS 1027	3h 03m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 19m	99%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON