Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49% (calm day: 25%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:51, 22% on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 266 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 10:37	SAN 19:02	18%	4%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 08:00 → LIH 08:55AS 1029	1h 49m Lihue	LIH 10:44 → SAN 19:23AS 239	8h 23m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	3h 04m Kahului	OGG 12:59 → SAN 21:11AS 203	8h 52m	100%	69%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:31 → HNL 09:19AS 1027	3h 20m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 36m	100%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:51 → HNL 11:40AS 1057	59m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	7h 16m	47%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON