tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:31, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 475 Alaska KOA 12:38 SEA 21:03 18% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → KOA 08:00 → LIH 08:55AS 1029 3h 36m Lihue LIH 12:31 → SEA 21:21AS 234 10h 21m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039 3h 00m Kahului OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25AS 930 9h 06m 100% 71%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 08:31 → HNL 09:19AS 1027 1h 30m Honolulu HNL 10:49 → SEA 19:20AS 902 7h 49m 95% 64%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149 1h 06m Kahului OGG 14:34 → SEA 22:50AS 244 6h 59m 81% 58%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 09:44 → HNL 10:32AS 1037 2h 18m Honolulu HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34AS 822 8h 50m 100% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → KOA 10:51 → HNL 11:40AS 1057 1h 10m Honolulu HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34AS 822 7h 43m 72% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON