Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30% (calm day: 18%). Best bet: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:19, 75% on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	2h 12m Kahului	OGG 12:07 → SJC 20:03AS 954	7h 44m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:46 → HNL 09:49AS 1037	2h 51m Honolulu	HNL 12:40 → SJC 20:57AS 854	9h 11m	100%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:26 → HNL 11:29AS 1057	1h 11m Honolulu	HNL 12:40 → SJC 20:57AS 854	7h 31m	74%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON