Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 12:20, 48% on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 2230 Southwest	KOA 10:01	SMF 18:15	7%	3%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	2h 28m Kahului	OGG 12:23 → SMF 20:36AS 960	8h 17m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:00 → LIH 08:55AS 1029	1h 53m Lihue	LIH 10:48 → SMF 19:01AS 966	8h 01m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:51 → HNL 11:40AS 1057	3h 09m Honolulu	HNL 14:49 → SMF 23:02AS 820	9h 11m	97%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON