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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 101 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1182 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1182 ONT 06:01 → SJC 07:28 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 539 LAX 10:00 → SFO 11:20 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 1182 Southwest ONT 06:01 SJC 07:28 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2520 Southwest LAX 06:06 SJC 07:30 2% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 3161 Southwest ONT 06:11 OAK 07:39 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3450 Southwest LAX 06:01 OAK 07:27 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 761 Southwest SNA 06:46 SJC 08:17 2% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 915 Southwest BUR 07:31 SJC 08:54 3% 1% 1.6% no record
WN 4009 Southwest SNA 08:26 SJC 09:57 3% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 4040 Southwest SNA 07:19 OAK 08:54 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 879 Southwest BUR 07:01 OAK 08:25 4% 1% 1.5% no record
UA 781 United LAX 06:00 SFO 07:30 4% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3462 Southwest SNA 08:31 OAK 10:05 4% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3208 Southwest LGB 08:16 SJC 09:42 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 920 Southwest BUR 10:27 SJC 11:50 5% 2% 1.3% no record
WN 1096 Southwest SNA 09:31 SJC 11:01 5% 3% 0.8% no record
WN 1076 Southwest LGB 08:31 OAK 10:02 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3272 Southwest ONT 10:30 OAK 11:58 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1031 Southwest BUR 09:18 OAK 10:42 6% 2% 1.5% no record
UA 2363 United Flight history → ONT 06:00 SFO 07:25 6% 2% 0.6% 91%
WN 3280 Southwest ONT 10:53 SJC 12:20 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 883 Southwest BUR 11:13 OAK 12:37 7% 3% 1.2% no record
WN 3237 Southwest BUR 12:07 SJC 13:30 8% 3% 1.3% no record
WN 2503 Southwest LAX 06:36 SFO 08:03 8% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 1151 Southwest SNA 10:26 OAK 12:00 8% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 3849 SkyWest LAX 14:24 SJC 15:52 8% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 1045 Southwest LAX 09:21 SJC 10:44 9% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 1974 Southwest LAX 09:26 OAK 10:53 9% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 3847 SkyWest LAX 07:54 SJC 09:22 9% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 1594 Southwest LGB 11:16 SJC 12:42 9% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 300 Southwest SNA 12:01 SJC 13:32 9% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 3436 Southwest SNA 17:03 SJC 18:34 9% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 813 Southwest BUR 14:56 SJC 16:19 10% 3% 1.3% no record
DL 1380 Delta LAX 09:28 SJC 10:49 10% 3% 1.2% no record
WN 3281 Southwest ONT 15:56 SJC 17:24 10% 5% 0.6% no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 12:57 SJC 14:12 10% 4% 0.6% 90%
WN 2957 Southwest SNA 13:01 SJC 14:32 11% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 4012 Southwest SNA 15:21 SJC 16:52 11% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 1166 Southwest LGB 12:11 OAK 13:42 11% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2947 Southwest ONT 15:01 OAK 16:30 11% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 3295 Southwest BUR 17:45 SJC 19:08 13% 5% 1.1% no record
WN 3537 Southwest BUR 13:23 OAK 14:47 13% 4% 1.2% no record
WN 3044 Southwest LAX 11:36 SJC 12:59 13% 4% 0.8% no record
WN 3997 Southwest SNA 12:16 OAK 13:50 13% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 1371 Southwest BUR 15:33 OAK 16:57 13% 5% 1.2% no record
WN 2577 Southwest LGB 16:21 SJC 17:46 14% 4% 0.6% no record
DL 1359 Delta LAX 16:07 SJC 17:28 14% 6% 1.2% no record
WN 2510 Southwest LAX 15:01 SJC 16:24 15% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 910 Southwest BUR 17:06 OAK 18:30 15% 5% 1.1% no record
WN 1706 Southwest LGB 14:36 OAK 16:07 15% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 3999 Southwest SNA 16:22 OAK 17:57 15% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 2494 Southwest LAX 12:26 OAK 13:53 16% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 2509 Southwest LAX 13:21 SJC 14:44 16% 4% 0.7% no record
AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 06:45 SFO 08:30 16% 5% 1.4% 93%
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 SFO 08:21 17% 5% 0.8% 94%worse than usual
WN 3086 Southwest SNA 14:22 OAK 15:56 18% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 233 United Flight history → LAX 17:10 SFO 18:38 18% 12% 0.6% 83%
OO 6274 SkyWest LAX 07:24 SFO 08:55 20% 8% 0.9% no record
UA 488 United Flight history → BUR 07:02 SFO 08:30 20% 6% 1.0% 80%
WN 2495 Southwest LAX 16:01 OAK 17:28 20% 8% 0.6% no record
UA 1320 United SNA 15:04 SFO 16:41 21% 12% 0.7% no record
AS 726 Alaska LAX 17:00 SFO 18:21 22% 10% 0.7% no record
UA 469 United Flight history → LAX 13:25 SFO 14:55 22% 11% 0.6% 77%
AS 1501 Alaska LAX 07:15 SFO 08:35 23% 6% 0.7% no record
AA 3138 American Flight history → LAX 17:31 SFO 19:03 23% 14% 0.6% 69%
OO 3313 SkyWest SNA 16:57 SFO 18:35 23% 11% 1.1% no record
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 16:12 SFO 17:50 23% 14% 1.0% 67%
WN 914 Southwest BUR 12:33 SFO 14:00 24% 8% 2.0% no record
WN 1313 Southwest BUR 16:46 SFO 18:13 25% 12% 1.8% no record
UA 1245 United Flight history → LAX 11:55 SFO 13:34 25% 13% 0.6% 79%
OO 5483 SkyWest ONT 16:07 SFO 17:42 25% 15% 0.9% no record
OO 6276 SkyWest LAX 14:01 SFO 15:32 26% 14% 0.8% no record
UA 2019 United Flight history → LAX 16:14 SFO 17:42 26% 16% 0.6% 68%
UA 1375 United Flight history → ONT 13:50 SFO 15:15 27% 14% 0.6% 57%
UA 1372 United Flight history → LAX 07:30 SFO 09:06 27% 8% 0.6% 49%
AS 3441 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 12:15 SFO 13:53 28% 13% 1.0% 76%
AA 1110 American LAX 11:02 SFO 12:34 28% 11% 0.6% no record
AS 91 Alaska LAX 14:53 SFO 16:13 28% 11% 0.7% no record
F9 1159 Frontier Flight history → ONT 12:04 SFO 13:43 28% 20% 2.1% 23%
WN 1817 Southwest LAX 12:01 SFO 13:29 28% 13% 0.6% no record
UA 1387 United ONT 09:32 SFO 11:13 28% 10% 0.6% no record
UA 1066 United BUR 16:09 SFO 17:39 28% 14% 0.8% no record
UA 653 United SNA 07:30 SFO 09:07 29% 9% 0.8% no record
WN 1146 Southwest BUR 08:21 SFO 09:48 29% 9% 2.5% no record
UA 2199 United LAX 10:57 SFO 12:28 30% 13% 0.6% no record
OO 5330 SkyWest SNA 11:05 SFO 12:43 30% 14% 1.1% no record
UA 1905 United LAX 09:33 SFO 11:17 30% 12% 0.6% no record
DL 689 Delta LAX 12:02 SFO 13:25 30% 10% 0.8% no record
WN 1162 Southwest LAX 14:01 SFO 15:28 31% 14% 0.6% no record
OO 3333 SkyWest SNA 14:10 SFO 15:48 33% 15% 1.0% no record
F9 2857 Frontier Flight history → LAX 08:41 SFO 10:17 33% 14% 3.0% 50%
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 09:45 SFO 11:16 33% 13% 0.9% 63%
UA 2386 United Flight history → BUR 10:53 SFO 12:21 35% 12% 0.8% 52%
AS 1406 Alaska LAX 13:54 SFO 15:15 36% 12% 0.7% no record
UA 1453 United Flight history → BUR 13:45 SFO 15:13 36% 14% 0.8% 66%
WN 2504 Southwest LAX 10:01 SFO 11:28 37% 15% 0.6% no record
UA 520 United BUR 09:35 SFO 11:05 38% 12% 0.9% no record
OO 5616 SkyWest SNA 09:46 SFO 11:24 38% 18% 1.2% no record
OO 3054 SkyWest SNA 09:26 SFO 11:04 39% 17% 1.2% no record
DL 2267 Delta Flight history → LAX 14:25 SFO 15:44 39% 13% 0.8% 50%
DL 1715 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:20 SFO 10:42 39% 10% 0.9% 52%
AS 519 Alaska LAX 08:19 SFO 09:39 40% 11% 0.7% no record
AS 539 Alaska LAX 10:00 SFO 11:20 43% 15% 0.7% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON