tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 30 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2914 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 2914 LAX 05:26 → MDW 11:28 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1352 SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2914 Southwest LAX 05:26 MDW 11:28 4% 1% 0.6% no record
UA 580 United Flight history → LAX 05:10 ORD 11:27 6% 2% 0.7% 98%
AA 383 American Flight history → LAX 06:05 ORD 12:32 7% 4% 1.2% 91%
WN 884 Southwest BUR 08:11 MDW 14:11 8% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 587 United Flight history → SNA 06:45 ORD 13:09 9% 3% 0.7% 87%
WN 3013 Southwest LGB 07:56 MDW 13:55 10% 2% 0.8% no record
UA 1941 United Flight history → LAX 07:00 ORD 13:14 11% 4% 0.7% 91%
UA 2226 United Flight history → ONT 07:00 ORD 13:10 13% 4% 1.0% 76%
AA 2590 American Flight history → SNA 07:45 ORD 14:08 14% 5% 1.0% 88%
AA 1598 American Flight history → LAX 08:00 ORD 14:27 14% 6% 1.0% 90%
DL 967 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:40 ORD 13:46 15% 5% 0.5% 85%
UA 1946 United Flight history → LAX 08:15 ORD 14:35 15% 5% 0.7% 85%
DL 1634 Delta Flight history → LAX 17:15 ORD 23:18 16% 7% 0.4% 67%
AA 1998 American Flight history → LAX 17:07 ORD 23:25 17% 9% 0.8% 42%
UA 2780 United LAX 16:51 ORD 23:05 17% 7% 0.6% no record
UA 2426 United Flight history → SNA 10:37 ORD 16:53 19% 6% 0.7% 79%
AA 2998 American Flight history → LAX 09:30 ORD 15:48 19% 8% 1.0% 71%
WN 4433 Southwest LAX 16:01 MDW 22:06 20% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 2794 United Flight history → LAX 15:20 ORD 21:43 20% 7% 0.6% 91%worse than usual
WN 2828 Southwest LAX 12:06 MDW 18:10 21% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 2113 United Flight history → LAX 10:45 ORD 17:04 22% 8% 0.6% 78%
AA 2891 American Flight history → LAX 11:35 ORD 17:59 23% 11% 1.0% 74%
UA 2487 United Flight history → LAX 14:26 ORD 20:40 24% 8% 0.6% 69%
DL 2368 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:24 ORD 17:35 24% 8% 0.5% 66%
AA 3075 American LAX 10:20 ORD 16:44 24% 9% 1.0% no record
UA 457 United Flight history → LAX 12:50 ORD 19:05 26% 8% 0.6% 69%
AA 3151 American SNA 15:12 ORD 21:20 27% 7% 1.0% no record
AA 3192 American LAX 13:31 ORD 20:05 28% 10% 0.9% no record
AA 2285 American Flight history → SNA 11:44 ORD 18:06 29% 8% 1.1% 68%
UA 1352 United Flight history → SNA 14:10 ORD 20:26 29% 8% 0.6% 68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 46m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 5h 55m 84% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON