Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 572 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 572 LAX 05:06 → HOU 10:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4694 LAX 14:36 → HOU 19:53 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 572 Southwest	LAX 05:06	HOU 10:25	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 654 United Flight history →	LAX 05:45	IAH 11:12	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
UA 2267 United	ONT 06:00	IAH 11:33	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2367 Southwest	LAX 00:50	HOU 06:09	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 700 United Flight history →	SNA 07:45	IAH 13:07	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 491 United Flight history →	LAX 00:51	IAH 06:12	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 1416 United Flight history →	LAX 08:10	IAH 13:40	11%	4%	0.7%	91%
F9 1756 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:11	IAH 11:42	11%	6%	1.0%	70%
UA 277 United Flight history →	LAX 10:10	IAH 15:40	13%	5%	0.7%	88%
WN 2396 Southwest	LGB 09:06	HOU 14:18	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 643 United Flight history →	SNA 15:05	IAH 20:27	14%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 2377 United Flight history →	LAX 15:20	IAH 20:49	14%	6%	0.7%	87%
OO 4998 SkyWest	LAX 14:16	IAH 19:40	14%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1477 United	LAX 12:00	IAH 17:38	15%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1084 United	LAX 13:01	IAH 18:24	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2765 United	LAX 15:20	IAH 20:43	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	IAH 15:04	16%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 2044 United Flight history →	SNA 12:00	IAH 17:15	19%	5%	0.6%	74%
WN 4907 Southwest	ONT 14:41	HOU 19:49	19%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 4694 Southwest	LAX 14:36	HOU 19:53	29%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON