tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 38 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1403 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 1403 LAX 06:00 → EWR 14:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1559 SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1403 United Flight history → LAX 06:00 EWR 14:37 7% 3% 1.1% 92%
DL 979 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:39 8% 4% 0.8% 90%
B6 124 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:30 8% 3% 1.2% 93%
AA 118 American Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:37 8% 3% 1.0% 85%
UA 2743 United Flight history → LAX 07:00 EWR 15:37 9% 4% 0.9% 94%
AA 2 American Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:39 10% 4% 1.0% 86%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 07:27 JFK 16:00 12% 6% 1.1% 80%
UA 661 United Flight history → SNA 06:45 EWR 15:21 12% 4% 1.1% 91%
DL 938 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:43 JFK 15:52 14% 4% 0.8% 79%
AS 286 Alaska Flight history → LAX 07:02 EWR 15:14 14% 7% 1.7% 90%
DL 915 Delta Flight history → LAX 00:14 JFK 08:20 15% 4% 0.9% 86%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 15:20 JFK 23:57 17% 8% 1.2% 81%
AA 28 American Flight history → LAX 15:15 JFK 23:54 17% 8% 1.0% 79%
AA 307 American Flight history → LAX 08:30 JFK 17:09 17% 7% 1.0% 76%
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 12:35 JFK 21:09 17% 10% 1.1% 82%
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 14:30 JFK 23:10 18% 9% 1.2% 71%
DL 991 Delta Flight history → LAX 15:30 JFK 23:41 18% 7% 0.8% 78%
DL 939 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:15 JFK 21:53 18% 8% 0.8% 73%
AA 32 American Flight history → LAX 11:05 JFK 19:46 18% 10% 1.0% 74%
DL 934 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:06 JFK 17:20 18% 6% 0.8% 89%
AA 4 American Flight history → LAX 13:00 JFK 21:34 19% 10% 1.0% 76%
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 11:35 JFK 20:11 19% 10% 1.2% 77%
DL 972 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:15 JFK 20:02 19% 8% 0.8% 67%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 09:49 JFK 18:25 19% 9% 1.2% 80%
UA 2096 United Flight history → LAX 08:20 EWR 16:45 20% 9% 1.0% 83%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 00:00 JFK 08:23 20% 6% 1.3% 68%
UA 1700 United Flight history → LAX 16:10 EWR 00:44 20% 9% 0.8% 84%
AA 238 American Flight history → LAX 10:11 JFK 18:52 22% 10% 1.0% 71%
AA 274 American Flight history → LAX 11:55 JFK 20:36 22% 10% 1.0% 60%
DL 951 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:17 JFK 21:27 22% 9% 0.8% 74%
DL 958 Delta Flight history → LAX 10:08 JFK 18:18 24% 7% 0.8% 83%
AA 2459 American Flight history → SNA 11:52 JFK 20:35 26% 9% 0.8% 73%
UA 2127 United Flight history → LAX 10:20 EWR 19:04 32% 14% 0.9% 72%
B6 1874 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 10:55 EWR 19:28 34% 13% 1.2% 67%
UA 1981 United Flight history → LAX 11:15 EWR 19:30 37% 15% 0.9% 72%
UA 1855 United Flight history → LAX 13:25 EWR 21:43 38% 15% 0.8% 62%
UA 1950 United Flight history → LAX 13:49 EWR 22:04 38% 15% 0.8% 61%
UA 1559 United Flight history → SNA 12:29 EWR 20:56 41% 18% 1.0% 64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969 7h 37m 96% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 34m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399 1h 14m Detroit DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573 7h 24m 97% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON