Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 482 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 482 LAX 07:35 → MCO 15:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1024 LAX 10:51 → MCO 18:56 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 482 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	MCO 15:35	14%	5%	0.8%	84%
DL 718 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:05	MCO 00:07	18%	5%	0.7%	77%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	LAX 10:24	MCO 18:30	20%	7%	1.2%	89%
DL 867 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:34	MCO 18:49	29%	7%	1.4%	69%
AA 1024 American Flight history →	LAX 10:51	MCO 18:56	32%	10%	1.4%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 08m Houston	IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245	7h 00m	93%	87%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	1h 13m Houston	IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662	7h 19m	99%	84%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:46AA 971	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:05 → MCO 10:49AA 2119	7h 18m	91%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON