Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1016 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1016 LAX 05:02 → BWI 13:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4276 LAX 13:41 → BWI 21:53 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1016 Southwest	LAX 05:02	BWI 13:08	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 688 United	SNA 08:25	IAD 16:37	8%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1506 United	LAX 16:41	IAD 00:53	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	13%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	13%	5%	0.7%	81%
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	14%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 09:33	BWI 17:43	15%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:33	IAD 21:49	15%	6%	0.6%	94%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	LAX 08:23	DCA 16:29	20%	8%	0.7%	83%
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	22%	10%	0.7%	78%
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	23%	8%	0.8%	78%
WN 4276 Southwest	LAX 13:41	BWI 21:53	23%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	97%	85%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:46AA 971	1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623	7h 28m	90%	81%
Delta Details →	LGB 13:00 → SLC 15:49DL 1116	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	7h 29m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON