tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 186 at 10:51, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 186 Southwest LAS 10:51 AMA 15:01 12% 3% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:56 → IAH 06:01UA 2009 3h 29m Houston IAH 09:30 → AMA 11:21UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 25m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:59 → DFW 10:47AA 2932 3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:24 → AMA 15:43AA 3613 · flown by Envoy 7h 44m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:44 → DFW 14:31AA 2797 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:20 → AMA 18:39AA 3789 · flown by Envoy 6h 55m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:54 → DFW 11:41AA 654 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:09 → AMA 14:28AA 3383 · flown by Envoy 5h 34m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 1h 14m Houston IAH 12:25 → AMA 14:21UA 4817 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 21m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 1h 29m Denver DEN 14:10 → AMA 16:43UA 5233 · flown by SkyWest 5h 06m 94% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON