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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 09:30, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:30 → MSP 14:40DL 2261 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 12h 30m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922 3h 31m Seattle SEA 17:31 → ANC 20:26DL 2367 10h 17m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467 1h 10m Portland PDX 14:30 → ANC 17:27AS 315 7h 27m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45DL 2844 1h 50m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 8h 07m 96% 74%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 11:30 → SEA 14:14AS 785 2h 45m Seattle SEA 16:59 → ANC 19:38AS 225 9h 08m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664 3h 17m Chicago ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461 13h 48m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 06:02 → SEA 08:34AS 741 3h 37m Seattle SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:57AS 1434 9h 55m 97% 71%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 10:28 → SEA 13:14AS 629 2h 44m Seattle SEA 15:58 → ANC 18:37AS 99 9h 09m 94% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 12:16 → SEA 15:00AS 676 58m Seattle SEA 15:58 → ANC 18:37AS 99 7h 21m 69% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON