Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 755 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 755 LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2493 LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:47 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 755 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:00	ATL 13:00	6%	1%	0.5%	94%
DL 677 Delta Flight history →	LAS 07:05	ATL 14:05	9%	3%	0.5%	93%
DL 857 Delta Flight history →	LAS 00:33	ATL 07:18	9%	2%	0.5%	74%
DL 927 Delta Flight history →	LAS 08:26	ATL 15:25	11%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 777 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:41	ATL 17:45	14%	4%	0.5%	82%
DL 748 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:41	ATL 18:47	15%	4%	0.5%	88%
DL 591 Delta Flight history →	LAS 14:38	ATL 21:49	15%	5%	0.4%	80%
DL 466 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:12	ATL 20:24	16%	4%	0.4%	84%
F9 1116 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:40	ATL 13:50	17%	5%	1.1%	81%
WN 2493 Southwest	LAS 10:41	ATL 17:47	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON