Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, G4 3198 at 11:17, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 3198 Allegiant	LAS 11:17	ATW 16:55	20%	9%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834	3h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 09:32 → ATW 10:47DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	8h 03m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:27 → DTW 18:26DL 334	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	98%	83%
United Details →	LAS 12:38 → ORD 18:24UA 314	3h 36m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet	8h 45m	99%	79%
United Details →	LAS 11:58 → DEN 15:16UA 1006	2h 30m Denver	DEN 17:46 → ATW 21:12UA 2089	7h 14m	96%	78%
United Details →	LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet	6h 09m	92%	72%
United Details →	LAS 10:25 → ORD 16:21UA 1583	1h 56m Chicago	ORD 18:17 → ATW 19:32UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest	7h 07m	93%	66%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → ATW 22:58DL 4920 · flown by Endeavor	7h 27m	98%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON