Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1286 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1286 LAS 05:01 → AUS 09:49 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4532 LAS 16:32 → AUS 21:18 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1286 Southwest	LAS 05:01	AUS 09:49	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1651 Southwest	LAS 07:26	AUS 12:12	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2240 Southwest	LAS 08:40	AUS 13:29	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
F9 4684 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	AUS 11:52	16%	5%	1.1%	77%
WN 410 Southwest	LAS 15:02	AUS 19:51	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 4267 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:25	AUS 17:11	26%	5%	0.7%	82%
F9 4632 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 17:16	AUS 22:16	27%	12%	1.1%	81%
DL 2444 Delta	LAS 17:34	AUS 22:23	28%	11%	0.5%	no record
WN 4532 Southwest	LAS 16:32	AUS 21:18	28%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON