Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2245 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 2245 LAS 06:42 → BNA 12:21 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2248 LAS 16:18 → BNA 21:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2245 Southwest	LAS 06:42	BNA 12:21	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 646 Southwest	LAS 08:12	BNA 13:50	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 3778 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:14	BNA 13:23	16%	6%	0.9%	76%
WN 2241 Southwest	LAS 12:42	BNA 18:22	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2248 Southwest	LAS 16:18	BNA 21:59	25%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON