Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2301 at 09:16 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2301 LAS 09:16 → BOI 12:10 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3072 LAS 16:11 → BOI 19:03 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2301 Southwest	LAS 09:16	BOI 12:10	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 3120 SkyWest	LAS 15:15	BOI 18:14	22%	9%	0.8%	no record
F9 1933 Frontier	LAS 11:02	BOI 14:05	22%	8%	1.7%	no record
WN 3072 Southwest	LAS 16:11	BOI 19:03	32%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 2182 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 17:52	BOI 20:43	29%	12%	3.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON