Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 178 at 00:13 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day B6 178 LAS 00:13 → BOS 08:13 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 1020 LAS 11:22 → BOS 19:18 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 178 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 00:13	BOS 08:13	21%	5%	0.9%	84%
B6 1578 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 10:36	BOS 18:52	27%	12%	1.0%	62%
B6 1178 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 12:12	BOS 20:34	29%	15%	0.9%	68%
DL 1020 Delta	LAS 11:22	BOS 19:18	32%	9%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 01m	95%	85%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 14m	97%	80%
United Details →	LAS 00:06 → IAD 07:44UA 284	51m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → BOS 10:20UA 641	7h 14m	89%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON