Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 189 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 189 LAS 06:21 → BUR 07:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2152 LAS 14:29 → BUR 15:46 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 189 Southwest	LAS 06:21	BUR 07:38	3%	1%	2.2%	no record
WN 1285 Southwest	LAS 07:18	BUR 08:35	4%	1%	1.8%	no record
WN 2256 Southwest	LAS 09:23	BUR 10:40	9%	2%	1.8%	no record
WN 4037 Southwest	LAS 10:33	BUR 11:50	13%	3%	1.8%	no record
WN 2258 Southwest	LAS 11:17	BUR 12:34	18%	3%	1.6%	no record
F9 4107 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:15	BUR 12:41	18%	6%	1.6%	89%
WN 237 Southwest	LAS 12:23	BUR 13:40	20%	5%	1.5%	no record
WN 2259 Southwest	LAS 15:54	BUR 17:11	23%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 2152 Southwest	LAS 14:29	BUR 15:46	23%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON